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Yes, if an event has already taken place, its probability is considered to be 1, as it is certain that the event occurred. In probability theory, an event with a probability of 1 means that it is guaranteed to happen.

2025-04-06 07:44:02 By William Williams

If a dice roll has already occurred and we know that it landed on 6, then the probability of that particular roll being a 6 is indeed trivially 1. This is because the event has already happened, so we have certainty about the outcome. However, if you are asking about the probability of rolling a 6 on future rolls of the dice, that would still be 1/6 for a fair six-sided die, since each roll is independent of the previous rolls.

At first glance, it appears that the answer should be 1, given that we already established it landed on 6. However, there have been instances where what we believed to be true turned out to be incorrect. For instance, imagine we were convinced that time was absolute and assigned a probability of 1 to that belief. Later, we discovered that time is actually relative.

Considering this, what would the "accurate" probability have been regarding the relativity of time, prior to our discovery of its nature?

Very Supportive

Science

Rapid and Proficient Sea Ice Predictions

2025-04-06 07:44:02

Artificial intelligence enables the creation of a highly efficient and proficient substitute for a coupled Arctic sea ice prediction model through the use of generative diffusion techniques. View pictures in App save up to 80% data. (Left) The figures display the sea ice divergence (a, e, and i), shear rate (b, f, and j), sea-ice concentration (c, g, and k), and the semidiurnal variation in sea ice thickness (d, h, and l) as modeled by neXtSIM (a–d), the deterministic emulated forecast (e–h), and an ensemble member from the residual diffusion forecast (i–l). These data are pertinent to the date of December 30, 2017, at 03:00 UTC, with a forecast lead time of 50 days. (Right) A sample of the pan-Arctic validation sea ice thickness, as simulated by neXtSIM for a snapshot from January 2015, is presented on the right, alongside the 64 × 64 grid point surrogate domain (indicated by the red box) for frames (a) to (l). Credit: Finn et al. [2024], Figures 1 and 6. Editors' Highlights provide concise overviews of the latest research articles published by the editors of AGU journals. Source: Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems Sea ice model surrogates developed during the past decade are disrupting polar forecasting at a pace akin to numerical methods developed at the dawn of computer-generated predictions of Earth’s frozen oceans. In 1964, Lieutenant William Knodle’s numerical implementation of Vasily Shuleikin’s equations for wind-driven drift beckoned rapid development of physically consistent daily Arctic ice edge forecasts. In their new study, Finn et al. [2024] used generative diffusion to illustrate the potential of a Lagrangian sea ice emulator to predict intraseasonal thickness, concentration, drift and deformation across the Arctic pack with the veracity of the numerical training model, but orders of magnitude faster. The authors added stochasticity to a deterministic surrogate of the neXtSIM Lagrangian sea ice model that was coupled to the NEMO ocean framework and forced with ERA5 atmospheric re-analyses. They trained a neural network to iteratively denoise to 1995-2014 neXtSIM simulations, tuned the resulting residual diffusion surrogate to 2015 neXtSIM output, and emulated neXtSIM 2016-2018 forecasts. The residual diffusion emulator closely mimicked observed multi-fractal sea ice deformation simulated by neXtSIM, in contrast to the simpler deterministic surrogate. Without supplying boundary conditions to the surrogate domain, diffusion surrogate forecasts produced sharp linear kinematic features and related sea ice concentration and thickness 50 days past initialization, as seen in figure above. The method beckons ensemble sea ice forecasts for a fraction of the computational cost of dynamical models.

Science

Breton, a massive great white shark weighing 1,400 pounds, has made his way back to the shores of Florida.

2025-04-06 07:44:02

View pictures in App save up to 80% data. A 13-foot great white shark made a return appearance to the Florida waters Wednesday. The over 1,400-pound male shark, named Breton, has been tracked by researchers since 2020 and last resurfaced near Florida on New Year’s Day in 2024. Breton left the Newfoundland coast in early December and made his way south down the East Coast, according to the OCEARCH tracker.  The marine science organization OCEARCH monitors a shark named Breton, who was initially tagged by scientists in September 2020 close to Scatarie Island in Nova Scotia. He became the first shark to be tagged during OCEARCH's expedition in 2020. Since then, Breton has journeyed an impressive 40,913 miles.  Breton has taken trips to Florida during this season in the past, and in 2022, he gained significant attention when his tag pings suggested he had crafted a self-portrait. The great white shark has traveled up and down the East Coast for the past five years and in 2023, he was “pinged” near the Pamlico Sound on North Carolina’s Outer Banks. Great white sharks range from Maine down to the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Breton isn’t the only great white shark making his way south. Bob, another 13-foot male white shark, was pinged off the Florida coast on Jan. 5, according to the tracker.

Science

Boeing Starliner crew members continue to stay occupied aboard the ISS, yet they express a desire to return home in the future.

2025-04-06 07:44:02

View pictures in App save up to 80% data. On Wednesday, January 8, 2025, NASA astronauts Butch Wilmore, Nick Hague, Don Pettit, and Suni Williams engaged in a conversation from the International Space Station with NASA Administrator Bill Nelson and Deputy Administrator Pam Melroy. (NASA) Having officially spent seven months aboard the International Space Station, the two NASA astronauts who traveled on Boeing's Starliner last June are preparing for a hectic schedule in the new year as they anticipate their return flight in the spring. Butch Wilmore and Suni Williams reached the International Space Station (ISS) on June 5 aboard the Starliner. However, they stayed on the station after NASA opted to return the spacecraft without its crew due to safety concerns. The two astronauts connected with fellow NASA members Nick Hague and Don Pettit for a conversation from the ISS with NASA Administrator Bill Nelson and Deputy Administrator Pam Melroy on Wednesday. “I’d like to request Butch and Suni to clarify once and for all the questions that reporters keep bombarding me with regarding your situation. They’re worried about you being stranded, lacking clothes, and food,” Nelson stated. “Could you please put these concerns to rest for good? I sincerely hope you won’t have to address this again. How are you both doing?” Wilmore stepped in to clarify that during the duo's initial flight on Starliner, which was initially intended to last just eight days, they encountered some clothing challenges. This was due to Starliner needing to transport emergency equipment to ensure the bathroom was operational, resulting in the pair having to forgo some of their personal items. “It was common knowledge that we arrived here and exchanged a few components we required on the space station for some of our clothing. We ended up wearing those clothes for a period, but it didn't inconvenience us at all. Up here, clothes are more relaxed in fit. Unlike on Earth, where sweating can make things uncomfortable, here they are loose enough that you can wear them for weeks without any issue.” Since the arrival of Crew-9 last fall, the duo has been provided with a new wardrobe, according to him, and this mission will ultimately serve as the return journey for Williams and Wilmore. He also mentioned that everyone on the vessel is well-nourished. "I've never witnessed anyone consume as much food as Don Pettit does. It's incredible to see this man eat, especially considering how slim he is. It's truly a delight to behold," Wilmore remarked. Melroy reaffirmed her commitment to dispelling the “stranded” narrative that has circulated in various media outlets regarding the prolonged stay of the Starliner astronauts. “So what you're saying is that you're not tapping into 'Cast Away,' and you don't possess a volleyball marked with a handprint that you refer to as Wilson,” Melroy remarked. Williams, currently serving as the commander for what is now Expedition 72, remarked that there is an overwhelming amount of work to focus on, leaving little room for such contemplations. “Not at all, we have a full team here, so that’s not a concern. Plus, there’s plenty of work to tackle with the crew down below,” she mentioned. “We conducted numerous scientific experiments during SpaceX’s cargo resupply mission 31. Upcoming spacewalks are on the agenda as well. Things were quite hectic while we awaited Nick (Hague) to arrive. It’s truly been a pleasure working up here, especially alongside our colleagues on the opposite side of the space station.” Williams and Hague are scheduled to undertake at least one spacewalk later this month, while Wilson and Wilmore may participate in a second one the following week. “It’s an amazing team, and honestly, it doesn’t feel like we’re isolated. Sure, we want to return home eventually, since we’ve been away from our families for some time, but there’s plenty to accomplish while we’re here,” Williams remarked. “We need to finish all our tasks before we can head back.” The astronauts of Starliner were formally integrated into the Crew-9 team when the SpaceX Crew Dragon Freedom docked on September 29, piloted by Commander Hague, accompanied by mission specialist Aleksandr Gorbunov from Roscosmos. The two astronauts traveled with two vacant seats, allowing Wilmore and Williams to catch a ride back home. Crew-9 will remain at the International Space Station until Crew-10 arrives, which is scheduled to launch in late March. This suggests that Crew-9 might not come back to Earth until early April, as there typically is a handoff period of about a week following the arrival of a replacement crew. Consequently, Wilmore and Williams could end up spending nearly 10 months aboard the spacecraft. NASA's Pettit has joined the team after arriving via a Soyuz spacecraft, and he is scheduled to head back home on the same vehicle in March. This week, Williams has ascended to the second position for the total number of days spent in space by a NASA astronaut. With a remarkable 538 days accumulated over three missions to the ISS since 2006, she now follows in the footsteps of Peggy Whitson, a former NASA astronaut and current Axiom Space employee, who has an impressive record of over 675 days in space. Whitson is also set to add to her total as she prepares to take command of the Axiom 4 mission later this year.

Science

Artificial intelligence enhances the capabilities of robots for improved underwater exploration.

2025-04-06 07:44:02

View pictures in App save up to 80% data. Image source: Unsplash+ The ocean represents one of the final vast frontiers on our planet, encompassing over 70% of its surface while still being mostly uncharted. Autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) are revolutionizing exploration by delving into the depths without the need for human operators. These autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) are employed for tasks such as mapping the ocean floor, investigating marine ecosystems, and even locating shipwrecks or valuable minerals. With advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), these robotic submarines are evolving to become increasingly intelligent and proficient. AUVs function in demanding conditions where direct human oversight is often unfeasible. The ocean is expansive, dimly lit, and rife with unpredictable currents. Conventional AUVs depended on preset commands, limiting their ability to adjust to unforeseen circumstances. Artificial intelligence is transforming this field by enabling autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) to independently make decisions, adapt, and react to their surroundings in real time. An intriguing advancement has emerged from MIT researchers, who have developed AI systems for Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) that leverage machine learning to assess their environments and modify their operational objectives accordingly. For instance, an AUV used for mapping coral reefs is now capable of identifying significant areas, like thriving or compromised coral, allowing it to concentrate its data collection efforts in those locations. This approach optimizes both time and energy, resulting in more valuable insights. AI enhances navigation capabilities significantly. When it comes to underwater environments, GPS is ineffective as satellite signals cannot reach through water. To determine their location, Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) rely on various sensors, including sonar and cameras. Artificial intelligence aids in analyzing this data to produce precise representations of the ocean floor. In a particular research project, a group of scientists employed AI to instruct autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) on how to navigate around obstacles such as rocks and submerged structures, enabling them to safely investigate more intricate environments. A significant advancement has been made in swarm intelligence, which involves multiple AUVs collaborating as a cohesive unit. Drawing inspiration from the behavior of fish schools, scientists are creating AI algorithms that enable these AUV groups to synchronize their actions autonomously, without the need for human oversight. These swarms have the capability to efficiently cover extensive regions, making them ideal for tasks like detecting oil spills or overseeing marine ecosystems. An illustrative case is the European Union's initiative known as “SwarmDiver,” which showcased how compact and lightweight autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) can collaborate to monitor underwater pollution levels or fluctuations in water temperature. AI is enhancing the way we collect and analyze data. Underwater ecosystems generate vast quantities of information, including video recordings and chemical assessments. Conducting a manual analysis of this data can require several months. Thanks to AI, Autonomous Underwater Vehicles (AUVs) can analyze data in real-time, allowing them to detect significant patterns or irregularities. This capability is especially beneficial in fields such as underwater archaeology, where AI aids in discovering artifacts or shipwrecks through the examination of sonar imagery. In marine science, autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) equipped with artificial intelligence are assisting scientists in tracking climate change. These advanced robots gather essential data regarding water temperature, salinity, and current patterns, offering vital information on the evolving state of the oceans. They have also been utilized to monitor fish population migrations, investigate deep-sea hydrothermal vents, and study the behaviors of rare marine species. Nonetheless, challenges persist. AUVs must function for extended durations without surfacing, leading to ongoing constraints related to battery longevity. Additionally, AI algorithms depend on consistent data to make informed decisions; however, underwater environments—characterized by murky visibility or powerful currents—can disrupt sensor accuracy. Moreover, keeping in touch with AUVs poses challenges since radio waves do not propagate effectively beneath the water's surface, while acoustic signals tend to have slower transmission rates. In spite of these challenges, the capabilities of AI-driven AUVs are vast. They are making significant contributions to scientific research while also aiding sectors such as offshore energy and maritime security. For example, AUVs can conduct inspections of underwater pipelines or oversee ports for potential threats, undertaking tasks that would be too perilous or costly for human operators. Artificial intelligence is revolutionizing our exploration and comprehension of the oceanic realm. These intelligent machines are paving the way for new avenues of discovery, ranging from safeguarding marine environments to uncovering resources hidden in the depths of the sea. As innovation progresses, they might even assist in unraveling some of the ocean's most profound enigmas. The prospects for underwater exploration are promising, and with artificial intelligence at the forefront, we are nearing the revelation of the mysteries that lie beneath the waves.

Science

Traffic Notice: Vale Street (January 9 & 13)

2025-04-06 07:44:02

Weather permitting, on Thursday, January 9th, work crews from the Hagerstown Light Department will be replacing a utility pole on Vale Street.  In order to give the crews space to perform the work, a temporary street closure will be required.   Therefore, beginning at 9:00 AM, Vale Street will be closed to traffic between Security Road and Jefferson Street.  Motorists approaching the closure will be required to detour via other City streets, and will encounter cones, barricades, and other traffic control devices.  It is anticipated that the work will be completed, and the street reopened to traffic, by 1:30 Thursday afternoon.  This same closure will be repeated on January 13th, weather permitting.   Emergency vehicles will not be able to pass through Vale Street while the closure is in effect. For any inquiries related to this advisory, please reach out to the Hagerstown Light Department at 301-739-8577, extension 578.    View pictures in App save up to 80% data.

Science

How to view the first complete 'Wolf' moon of 2025 and the story behind its name

2025-04-06 07:44:02

Full Moons are eagerly awaited occasions in the lunar calendar. Here’s how you can catch the first full 'Wolf Moon' of 2025. View pictures in App save up to 80% data. The 'Wolf Moon' is set to illuminate the night sky shortly. Skywatchers won't have to wait much longer for the first full Moon of the year to illuminate our night skies. A full Moon occurs when the side of the Moon facing the Earth is fully illuminated by the Sun. It rises around sunset and sets around sunrise. The upcoming full Moon is scheduled for Monday, January 13, 2025. It will attain its full phase at 10:26 PM GMT, although the times for moonrise will differ based on your specific location within the UK. The same side of the Moon always faces Earth. NASA says this is due to the interplay of gravity between the Earth and Moon slowing the moon into a rotation at the same speed it orbits Earth – a process known as being ‘tidally locked’. During the course of the lunar month, observers of the Moon can witness the movement of the terminator, which is the dividing line between the illuminated and dark portions of the lunar surface. When a full Moon occurs, the side of the Moon that faces Earth is completely illuminated. The term 'Wolf Moon' is derived from Native American traditions, where it was used to describe the first full moon of January. This name reflects the time of year when wolves were often heard howling in the cold winter nights, as they ventured out in search of food. The name has since been adopted into modern culture and is commonly used to refer to this specific full moon. The term "Wolf Moon" refers to the second full moon of the winter season and marks the first full moon of the new year. This name is thought to have come from Indigenous peoples in North America, as it was during this time that the sounds of wolves howling could often be heard in the night. View pictures in App save up to 80% data. The 'Wolf Moon' marks the initial full Moon of the new year. Dr. Darren Baskill, an astrophysicist at the University of Sussex, explains, “Some European cultures refer to the January Full Moon as the Wolf Moon, inspired by the haunting howls of wolves that echo through the winter as they hunt for sustenance.” “Wolves were hunted to extinction in the UK just 250 years ago, being Britain’s last apex predator to go extinct,” Baskill told BBC Science Focus. “But their presence is still remembered today through the oral tradition of the names of the Full Moon.” Every month features a unique name for its full Moon. For instance, June is known for its 'Strawberry Moon,' while September is referred to as the 'Corn Moon.' Full Moon schedule for the remainder of 2025. Monday, January 13 — Wolf Moon Wednesday, February 12 — Snow Moon Friday, March 14 — Worm Moon Saturday, April 12 — Pink Moon Monday, May 12 — Flower Moon Wednesday, June 11 — Strawberry Moon Thursday, July 10 — Buck Moon Saturday, August 9 — Sturgeon Moon Sunday, September 7 — Corn Moon Monday, October 6 — Hunter’s Moon (Supermoon) Wednesday, November 5 — Beaver Moon (Supermoon)

Science

California and Washington Rank Among the Top 5 States with the Highest Grocery Costs

2025-04-06 07:44:02

View pictures in App save up to 80% data. Timmy! After my recent grocery store visit, I looked at the receipt, and my jaw dropped. My wife typically handles the grocery shopping because, in her opinion, I can't be relied upon (and she’s not wrong). The total cost for a bag of groceries along with a case of soda came to $64. I was aware that prices were soaring, but wow, I really wasn't keeping track. After my shock, the article from TheHill.com really didn’t surprise me at all. All I can say is thank goodness we’re not shopping in California! View pictures in App save up to 80% data. Canva On average, American households spend more than $1,000 a month on groceries, breaking down to just about $270 a week, according to a new study via HelpAdvisor. HelpAdvisor ran the numbers from the U.S. Census Bureau to fill a shopping bag with stats. It's hardly surprising that families with kids tend to have higher expenses, but the fact that they spend nearly 41% more than those without children is striking. (My wife and I only have a dog, and I'm pretty sure our little fur-ball wasn't part of this survey). Which States Have the Highest Grocery Expenditures? When analyzing the data by state (recall my comment about how grateful we are not to be grocery shopping in California?), it turns out that California has the highest average weekly grocery expenditure for families, which stands at $297.72. Washington ranks 4th, following Nevada and Mississippi, with an average store expenditure of $287.67. Who spends the most on groceries at stores in Washington? Seattle takes the lead with the highest prices! Moving to California, San Francisco holds the top spot, closely followed by Los Angeles. Are you surprised by these stats? How do you save money at the store? Comparison shop? Coupons? Five Finger Discount? Tap the App and let us know! CHECK IT OUT: 20 American dishes that surprise people from other countries Stacker compiled a list of 20 unusual and uniquely American foods that might raise eyebrows outside the U.S. Gallery Acknowledgment: Charlotte Barnett Top grocery store chains in the United States The most popular grocery stores in America, from corporate chains to family-owned enterprises. Stacker ranked them using consumer ratings sourced from YouGov polls. Gallery Acknowledgment: Stacker

Science

SpaceX continues to deploy additional Starlink satellites, maintaining its momentum as it heads into 2024.

2025-04-06 07:44:02

View pictures in App save up to 80% data. On Wednesday, a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket lifted off from Launch Complex 39 at the Kennedy Space Center in Florida, successfully deploying Starlink satellites as part of Mission 12-11. Image courtesy of Joe Marino/UPI | License Photo. Jan. 8 (UPI) -- Coming off a record-setting 2024, SpaceX continued an aggressive launching schedule with the liftoff Wednesday morning of a Falcon 9 rocket that carried 21 Starlink satellites into lower-Earth orbit. The launch from Kennedy Space Center took place at 10:27 a.m. EST with a first-stage booster making its third trip. The booster landed on the drone ship A Shortfall of Gravitas in the Atlantic Ocean about eight minutes after liftoff. According to SpaceX, 13 of the newly launched satellites are equipped with direct-to-cell technology. Starlink is the largest satellite constellation ever deployed, designed to make Internet service available globally regardless of how remote the designation. According to satellite tracker and astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell, there are more than 6,850 active Starlink satellites orbiting Earth currently. SpaceX ended 2024 with 134 successful launches, a new record after just missing 100 launches in 2023. SpaceX successfully sends 21 Starlink satellites into orbit. View pictures in App save up to 80% data. On January 8, 2025, a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket successfully lifts off from Launch Complex 39 at Kennedy Space Center in Florida, carrying a payload of Starlink satellites. Photo credit: Joe Marino/UPI | Licensed Image.

Science

Humans Emit Light, But It's Too Faint for Our Eyes to Detect

2025-04-06 07:44:02

"The human body truly shines." View pictures in App save up to 80% data. It appears that the human body sparkles in sync with the circadian rhythm. Image credit: Mygate / Shutterstock.com. Living things have been known to glow thanks to a nifty trick called bioluminescence, but it’s something we more typically associate with animals of the deep sea than those stomping around surface-side. It may surprise you, then, to learn that bioluminescence has been detected in humans. That’s right, we glow in the dark – it’s just really, really, really faint. That was the discovery made by researchers in a 2009 study who used incredibly sensitive cameras to effectively watch naked people sleep. Bit creepy, sure, but it also shone a light on the light that we unknowingly emit. "The researchers noted that 'the human body actually emits a subtle glow.' As for the reason we can't perceive it? 'The brightness of the light released by the body is a thousand times dimmer than what our unaided eyes can detect.'" The shimmering phenomenon was noticed in five men in their twenties who were placed under standard light-dark settings and encouraged to take short naps in front of a cryogenic charge-coupled device (CCD) camera capable of sensing light down to the level of a single photon. The researchers pointed out that the camera needed to function at a temperature of –120 °C (-184 °F), but thankfully, the participants did not have to endure such extreme conditions. View pictures in App save up to 80% data. A. Overview of the experimental configuration. B–F. Photographs depicting ultraweak photon emissions from the human body, showcasing the subject illuminated by light. G. Calibration scale for the estimated radiation intensity on the skin's surface. H. Daily patterns of photon emission from the faces and bodies of 5 participants. I. A representative thermographic image of the subject from sections B-G. Image credit: Kobayashi et al., PLoS One 2009 (CC BY 4.0) They were, however, routinely sampled for saliva to measure cortisol levels, and had their surface and oral temperature checked before and after photon measurements were taken. Cortisol is a biomarker of endogenous circadian rhythms, which the researchers wanted to have tracked so that they could compare it against any changes observed on the camera. Interestingly, our natural radiance appears to fluctuate throughout the day, peaking in our facial glow. The driving force behind this variation is probably linked to our circadian rhythms. Chronobiology is a branch of science that studies cyclical physiological phenomena, and it’s established that the circadian clock is the main regulator of metabolism. We see it in the way we burn up glucose and consume oxygen, both of which – the researchers say – show robust rhythms in the main mammalian circadian center. The mitochondria, often referred to as the "powerhouse" of the cell, generate energy essential for our survival, but in the process, they also release small quantities of reactive oxygen species (ROS) as byproducts. These ROS engage with various molecules such as proteins, lipids, and fluorophores, resulting in excited states that emit biophotons. This phenomenon is what causes "the human body to shimmer in harmony with the circadian clock." Oh, look at us, all dressed up! Bioluminescence relies on enzymatic activity to glow, but there’s also another way that living things can glow and we’re increasingly finding it in more and more species.

Science

piggy_highlighted

2025-04-06 07:44:02

A recent survey indicates that most Americans are looking to enhance their financial habits in 2025. Conducted with a sample of 2,000 individuals, the survey revealed that over 40% (42%) anticipate experiencing a “holiday hangover” this year. Almost half (49%) of respondents intend to take a break in January, opting for a more subdued and less social lifestyle, and […] Search for a nearby business. Your browser is outdated and may pose security risks. We suggest upgrading to one of the following browsers: You're good to go! View pictures in App save up to 80% data. Thank you . Your account registration is complete, and you are now successfully logged in. Please look in your email for more information.